"Golden Nine" season, textiles will welcome "price surge"

From the textile index of the business community, the textile market continued to decline slightly this month. As of August 31, the textile index was 760 points, down 2.69% from 781 at the beginning of the month, setting a historical low in the cycle, compared with February 19, 2013. The highest point of the day was 1074 points, down 29.24%. (Note: Cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to date)

It can be seen from the price increase of the textile commodity prices in August of the price of the business community. First, the price of the textile products was up and down. Only 4 of the 21 textile raw materials monitored were in a rising trend, and the increase was not exceeded. 3%. Second, the decline narrowed, and the decline in the 17 commodities that fell in August did not exceed 5%. Third, the chemical fiber sector individual commodity market rebounded, such as the viscose industry chain still maintained a good rise, viscose staple fiber rose 2.04%, human cotton yarn rose 1.22%, acrylic fiber, polyester have improved compared with last month, Changshu flannel Acrylic staple fiber increased by 0.32%, and polyester FDY increased by 0.62%.

Supply exceeds demand, dragging cotton market

According to the data of the business community, the spot price of domestic cotton showed a slight decline, and it has been refreshing its historical low level for nearly five years. In the spot market, the domestic 3128B real estate cotton price is 13,000 yuan / ton, down 23.07% year-on-year, compared with the highest price of 30,900 yuan / ton in February 2011, down 57.92%. The oversupply of domestic cotton is still the main cause of the cotton market. First, there are still nearly 10 million tons of reserve cotton in the national reserve. However, due to weak demand and competition from imported cotton, reserve cotton has been in an intractable embarrassing situation. In early July of this year, the reserve cotton began to work, but the transaction was light. As of the 31st, the cumulative outflow of reserve cotton was 63,411.74 tons, and at this rate, the volume of tens of thousands of tons in two months was completely insufficient to maintain the reasonable inventory of the national storage cotton. Second, the demand side is weak, and the textile enterprises are tight. The downstream consumption improvement is still weak. In August, textiles are still in the off-season. There are not many orders in the autumn, mainly based on the old customers' loose orders and small orders. As of August 28, the country's cumulative processing of lint cotton was 6.473 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 395,000 tons, the cumulative sales of lint cotton was 5.886 million tons, and Changshu coral cashmere decreased by 772,000 tons.

Chemical fiber has a variety of sticky rubber bottom

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the current price of viscose staple fiber (1.5D) is 13,600 yuan / ton, and the coral velvet manufacturers have reached a record high of nearly two years, up 17.24% from the lowest level in early March this year. Affected by the industry's initiative to reduce production capacity and environmental protection, the bottom of viscose staple fiber booms. At the same time, due to the impact of raw materials, the enthusiasm of downstream procurement has been significantly improved. The price increase has slowed down in the latter half of the year, mainly because the general mentality of the downstream part of the radical chasing is more cautious, and a certain amount of just-needed replenishment is maintained. In August, I experienced a “roller coaster” for the PTA industry chain. From the PTA industry chain price fluctuation chart, PTA fell 3.97%, upstream PX fell 4.78%, downstream polyester POY fell 0.06%, DTY fell. 0.16%, short fiber fell 1.31%, FDY rose 0.62%. Entering the PTA cost end in August, the cost collapsed significantly. Fortunately, there was an overhaul period in the factory. The rigid demand for downstream enquiries was acceptable. The PTA market was weakly stagnant, but the crude oil fell in the middle and late, and fell below the $40/barrel mark. At the same time, the global stock market plummeted, the PTA market was severely frustrated, the price was refreshed to a new low of 15 years, and the spot price approached the 4,000 yuan/ton mark. At the end of the month, it was stimulated by the central bank's “double down”, and the crude oil and raw materials PX rebounded strongly. The downstream buying sentiment warmed up, the transaction volume increased significantly, and the PTA mainstream device unexpectedly stopped the boost. The operating rate remained at around 57%, and the price fluctuated. .

Textile exports drop Southeast Asia to seize the market

The export situation of textiles was not good. In July 2015, China’s textile and apparel exports amounted to 27.254 billion U.S. dollars, up 7.52% from the previous month and down 10.19% from the same period of last year. Among them, textile exports were US$9.515 billion, down 5.86% year-on-year, and apparel exports were 17.739 billion. The US dollar fell 12.36% year-on-year. In recent years, countries such as Southeast Asia continue to squeeze the Chinese textile market with their cost advantages, which has affected China's weak demand for textile raw materials. At the same time, from the perspective of the entire bulk market in August, the China Commodity Supply and Demand Index (BCI) issued by the business community was -0.49, with a growth rate of -2.37%, reflecting that the manufacturing economy was contracted from the previous month, and the economic downside risks were added. Big.

Xia Ting, an analyst at the business community, believes that textile raw materials have been weak due to various unfavorable factors such as weaker raw material costs, increased supply, and weak demand. However, in the near term, there are more positive news and fundamentals. The golden nine-silver ten-year traditional demand season, it is expected that the market will be significantly better in August than in August. Specifically: Although the overall situation of the cotton spinning market is still not optimistic, there are also some positive factors. From the perspective of domestic and international cotton supply, according to the US Department of Agriculture's August global production and demand forecast, global cotton stocks will decrease in 2015/16. 653,000 tons, mainly due to the decline in cotton production in the main producing countries. In 2015, the actual planting area of domestic cotton is estimated to be 52.64 million mu, a decrease of 13.45 million mu from 2014, a decrease of 20%; the total cotton output of the country is 5.5 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14%. Imports are also decreasing. According to China Customs statistics, in July 2015, China imported 105,700 tons of cotton, a decrease of 56,100 tons from the previous month, a decrease of 34.67%. From September 2014 to July 2015, China imported a total of 1,600,900 cotton. Tonne, a year-on-year decrease of 1,197,700 tons, a decrease of 42.80%. From the perspective of downstream demand, the upcoming Jinjiuyin 10 will surely stimulate the concentrated and explosive outflow of cotton. From the alternative point of view, the price of viscose begins to be higher than that of cotton, which has a positive impact on cotton demand.

In the chemical fiber market, the viscose industry chain will continue to maintain its upward trend. The viscose staple fiber manufacturers plan to arrange for limited production and maintenance in September. The supply is tight, the upstream pulp continues to rise, and the downstream yarn mills are gradually out of the off-season. Gradually increase. The PTA industry chain also ushered in various positives. In terms of PTA equipment, maintenance and driving, it is expected that the operating rate of the domestic PTA industry will not change much from August. On the upstream side, in September, the Asian PX plant, South Korea's Ssangyong, and Japan's Idemitsu, have maintenance plans, and the supply of Asian PX market is expected to be tight. The downstream part of the polyester inspection unit has a restart expectation, and the terminal order demand will pick up due to the traditional peak season. Therefore, without considering the impact of crude oil and sudden factors, it is expected that the PTA industry chain will show a trend of turbulence and warmth, but the range is limited.

To sum up, the textile market in September will be more likely to usher in a rebound trend. The first half of the year will be strong, and the rebound will start to increase in mid-term. The highest point is expected to be between 775-780 at the end of the month.